Dementia, idiopathic epilepsy, multiple sclerosis and tension-type headache all showed sharp increases in prevalence in mainland China between 2019 and 2021, according to an analysis of Global Burden of Disease data published April 1, 2026 in the Chinese Medical Journal. A statistical technique called joinpoint analysis pinpointed a significant turning point in age-standardized prevalence rates during those years, a period that coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic.
The study, led by Professor Yamei Tang of Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital at Sun Yat-sen University, drew on GBD 2021 figures to track 12 neurological disorders from 1990 through 2021, broken down by age, sex, region and modifiable risk factors. Globally, neurological diseases affected 3.40 billion people in 2021 - roughly 43.1 percent of the world's population. Most earlier research has examined one condition at a time, which left little basis for comparing how different disorders stack up against each other or across populations.
The long-term trends are striking in their own right. Prevalence rose for nearly every disorder studied over the three decades, with idiopathic epilepsy the sole exception. Parkinson's disease grew fastest at 544.1 percent, followed by dementia at 249.1 percent and ischemic stroke at 161.5 percent. Measured by disability-adjusted life years, which capture both years lost to death and years lived with impairment, dementia climbed most steeply at 208.2 percent. In 2021, intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke and dementia were the top three neurological causes of both death and DALYs in China.
For health systems, the practical implication is a shifting target: tension-type headache and migraine dominate on sheer numbers of people affected, while stroke and dementia consume the most years of healthy life. The apparent pandemic-era inflection point raises questions about how COVID-19 and its disruptions may have influenced neurological disease detection and burden, though this analysis identifies the timing correlation rather than explaining what caused it. Untangling that will take further work.